Ukususela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, amaxabiso okuthutha impahla kwisikhongozeli samazwe ngamazweimakethiziye zaqhubeka nokukhula, nto leyo eye yaba nefuthe elikhulu kwimpahla yamazwe ngamazwe, ezothutho kunyeurhwebo.

Ukusukela ekupheleni kuka-Agasti, isalathisi sokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwiikhonteyina zokuthumela ngaphandle eTshayina sifikelele kuma-3,079 amanqaku, ukunyuka kwama-240.1% kwixesha elifanayo ngo-2020, kwaye ngaphezulu kwesibini ngaphezulu kwenani eliphakamileyo lembali lamanqaku ali-1,336 ngaphambi komjikelo wangoku wokunyuka.

Olu luhlu lokunyuka kwamaxabiso lubandakanya uluhlu olubanzi. Ngaphambi kowama-2020, ukunyuka kwesantya sokuthutha kwimarike yeekhonteyina kwakugxile kakhulu kwezinye iindlela kunye namaxesha athile, kodwa olu luhlu ngokubanzi luye lwanda. Amazinga okuthutha kwimizila emikhulu efana nendlela yaseYurophu, indlela yaseMelika, indlela yaseJapan-South Korea, indlela yaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia, kunye nendlela yaseMeditera anyuke nge-410.5 ngokulandelelana xa kuthelekiswa nokuphela kuka-2019. %, 198.2%, 39.1%, 89.7% kunye ne-396.7%.

Ixabiso lempahla "engabonwanga ngaphambili" liyanyuka

Ngokuphathelele ukukhula kwimarike yothutho lweekhonteyina zamazwe ngamazwe, uJia Dashan, usekela-mongameli we-Water Transport Research Institute kwiSebe lezoThutho, obesenza uphando kushishino iminyaka emininzi, naye ukhale “ngokungazange kubonwe ngaphambili”.

UJia Dashan uthe ngokwembono yemfuno, uqoqosho lwehlabathi luye lwaqhubeka nokuchacha ukusukela ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka, kwaye urhwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe luye lwaqala kwakhona ukukhula ngokukhawuleza. Xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo ngo-2019, imfuno yokuthutha iikhonteyina inyuke malunga ne-6%. Imeko eTshayina ingcono. Ukususela ngoJuni ka-2020, ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwemveliso kunye norhwebo lwangaphandle kuye kwafumana ukukhula okuqhubekayo.

Ngokwembono yokubonelela ngempahla, ukusebenza kakuhle kweenqanawa ezichaphazelekileyo yibhubhane kuye kwehla kakhulu. Amazwe anyuse ukuthintela nokulawula ubhubhane olungeniswayo kwiizibuko, andisa ixesha lokufika kweenqanawa kwiizibuko, kwaye anciphise ukusebenza kakuhle kothungelwano lokubonelela ngezixhobo. Ixesha eliqhelekileyo leenqanawa ezima kwizibuko linyuke malunga neentsuku ezi-2, kwaye iinqanawa kwiizibuko zaseMntla Melika zahlala kwizibuko ngaphezulu kweentsuku ezi-8. Ukwehla kokuhamba kwemali kuye kwaphula ibhalansi yokuqala. Xa kuthelekiswa nemeko apho ibhalansi esisiseko yokubonelela ngempahla kunye nemfuno ngo-2019 yayingaphezulu kancinci, kukho ukunqongophala kweukubonelelamalunga ne-10%.

Ukunqongophala okuqhubekayo kwabasebenzi nako kukwandise ukunqongophala. Imeko enzima yobhubhane kumazwe amakhulu olwandle afana nePhilippines neIndiya, kunye nokutshintsha kwabasebenzi kunye nokwahlukaniswa, kukhokelele ekonyukeni okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso abasebenzi kwimarike yolwandle.

Ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kwezi zinto zikhankanyiweyo apha ngasentla, ubudlelwane obuqhelekileyo phakathi kokunikezelwa kwempahla kwimarike kunye nemfuno butshintshe ngokukhawuleza, kwaye amazinga okuthutha impahla kwiikhonteyina aqhubekile nokunyuka kakhulu.

Izibalo ezivela kwiBhunga lezoRhwebo noPhuhliso lweZizwe eziManyeneyo, iChina Customs kunye namazibuko zibonisa ukuba ukususela ngaphambi kokuqhambuka kobhubhane ukuya kuJulayi kulo nyaka, ngaphezulu kwama-80% omthamo worhwebo lwehlabathi wawugqitywe ngolwandle, ngelixa umlinganiselo worhwebo lwangaphandle lwaseTshayina olungeniswayo noluthunyelwa ngaphandle ngolwandle wawuvela kubhubhane. I-94.3% yangaphambili inyukile ukuya kwi-94.8% yangoku.

“Ngokophando olufanelekileyo, kurhwebo lweempahla zokungenisa nokuthumela ngaphandle lwaseTshayina, umlinganiselo weempahla ezinamalungelo okuthumela alawulwa ngamashishini asekhaya ungaphantsi kwama-30%. Eli candelo lamashishini liya kuchaphazeleka ngokuthe ngqo kukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso, ngelixa uninzi lwamashishini amanye amashishini ngokwethiyori aluchaphazeleki kukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso empahla.” Uhlalutye uJia Dashan. Ngamanye amazwi, ukunyuka kweendleko okubangelwa kukunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla kuqala kuya kudluliselwa ngokuthe ngqo kubathengi bamanye amazwe, kwaye impembelelo ngqo kumashishini aseTshayina incinci kakhulu.

Nangona kunjalo, njengexabiso elibalulekileyo leempahla, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla ngokuqinisekileyo kuya kuba nempembelelo enkulu kumashishini aseTshayina, ikakhulu kubonakala ekunciphiseni kweenkonzo zothutho. Ngenxa yokwehla kwesantya seshedyuli yeenqwelo-moya kunye nendawo encinci, ukujikeleza korhwebo kwamashishini okucubungula ukuthumela ngaphandle eTshayina akuhambanga kakuhle. Nokuba ii-odolo zenziwe ngempumelelo, ukuhanjiswa kuya kuchaphazeleka kukuhamba kakubi, okuya kuchaphazela ukuphunyezwa kwee-odolo zenkampani kunye namalungiselelo emveliso.

“Amashishini amancinci naphakathi aza kuchaphazeleka ngakumbi.” UJia Dashan ukholelwa ukuba ngenxa yokungabikho kweziqinisekiso zesivumelwano sexesha elide, amashishini amancinci naphakathi afuna iinkonzo zothutho kwimarike yeendawo ezithile. Ngokuxhomekeke kumandla okuxoxisana kunye neziqinisekiso zomthamo, ajongene nokunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla ngoku. Ingxaki yokuba “ibhokisi kunzima ukuyifumana, kwaye kunzima ukuyifumana ikhabhini”. Ukongeza, amasebe eenqanawa zomhlaba kunye neenkampani zothutho zangaphakathi nawo aza kongeza iindleko ezongezelelweyo zokunciphisa imithwalo kunye neendleko zokugcina ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla kunye nokwehla kwexesha lokuhamba ngenqwelomoya.

Ukwandisa amandla kunzima ukunyanga

Ngokwedatha evela kumaziko ophando lwemarike yaselwandle, amandla okusebenza kweenqwelo-moya kwihlabathi liphela ehle aye ngaphantsi kwe-1%. Ngaphandle kweenqanawa ekufuneka zilungiswe, phantse wonke amandla abekwe kwimarike. Abanini beenqanawa abaninzi baqalile ukwandisa ubungakanani boku-odola amandla, kodwa umgama omde awunakwanelisa unxano olusondeleyo. Abathumeli basaxela ukuba amandla asencinci kwaye kunzima ukufumana ikhabhathi enye.

UZhu Pengzhou, ilungu leShanghai Shipping Exchange, uthe uthungelwano lokuhambisa lubizwa ngokuba luthungelwano kuba umda ophezulu womthamo wethungelwano lonke uhlala uchatshazelwa yimpembelelo ye-short-board. Umzekelo, ukusebenza kakuhle kwesiphelo, ukunqongophala kwabaqhubi beelori, kunye nesantya esaneleyo sokukhulula nokubuyisela izikhongozeli kwimizi-mveliso konke oku kuya kuba yimiqobo. Iinkampani ze-liner ezikhulisa nje umthamo wokuthumela iinqanawa azinakuphucula umthamo uwonke wethungelwano lokuhambisa izinto.

UJia Dashan uvumelana kakhulu. Ngokuphathelele imfuno, xa kuthelekiswa nexesha elifanayo ngo-2019, imfuno yokuthutha iikhonteyina inyuke malunga ne-6%. Ngokuphathelele umthamo, umthamo unyuke malunga ne-7.5% kwixesha elifanayo. Kuyabonakala ukuba ukungalingani phakathi kokunikezelwa kunye nemfuno akubangelwanga kukungabikho kwamandla aneleyo. Ukwanda okungalinganiyo kwemfuno yempahla ebangelwa yibhubhane, ukuqokelelwa nokusasazwa okubi, ukuxinana kweenqanawa, kunye nokwehla kokusebenza kakuhle kweenqanawa zezona zizathu ziphambili.

Ngenxa yesi sizathu, abanini beenqanawa bangoku basalumkile kakhulu malunga nokutyala imali ekwakheni iinqanawa. Ngo-Agasti 2021, inani lomthamo we-odolo kwiinqanawa ezikhoyo liza kunyuka liye kwi-21.3%, eliphantsi kakhulu kunenqanaba lama-60% kwincopho yokugqibela yokuthunyelwa kweenqanawa ngo-2007. Nokuba ezi nqanawa zifakwa kwinkonzo ngaphambi kowama-2024, ngesantya sokukhula sonyaka esiphakathi kwe-3% kunye nesantya sokudilizwa sonyaka esiphakathi kwe-3%, ubudlelwane phakathi komthamo kunye nomthamo buya kuhlala bungatshintshanga, kwaye imakethi iya kuqhubeka nokugcina amazinga aphezulu okuthutha impahla.

Kuza kunciphisa nini “ubunzima bokufumana ikhabhathi”

Ukunyuka kwezinga lokuthutha impahla akupheleli nje ekubeni libi kwiinkampani zorhwebo, kodwa kuya kuzisa nemingcipheko emikhulu kunye nokungaqiniseki kwiinkampani zokuthutha impahla ekuhambeni kwexesha.

Inkampani enkulu yokuthutha impahla kwihlabathi liphela i-CMA CGM icacisile ukuba ukususela ngoSeptemba kulo nyaka ukuya kuFebruwari 2022, iza kuyeka ukunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla kwimarike yeposi. I-Hapag-Lloyd ikwathe ithathe amanyathelo okunqanda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso empahla.

“Kulindeleke ukuba ukuphela kuka-2021 kuza kungenisa inqanaba lokunyuka kwesantya esiphezulu sempahla kwimarike, kwaye izinga lempahla liza kungena kancinci kancinci kwindawo yokubuyela umva. Kakade ke, impembelelo yokungaqiniseki kweemeko ezingxamisekileyo ayinakuthintelwa.” UZhang Yongfeng, umcebisi oyintloko weZiko loPhando lweeShishini zaMazwe ngaMazwe laseShanghai kunye nomlawuli we-Institute of International Shipping Express.

“Nokuba ubudlelwane bokubonelela ngempahla kunye nemfuno bubuyiselwe ngokupheleleyo kwinqanaba lika-2019, ngenxa yokunyuka kweendleko zezinto ezahlukeneyo, kunzima ukuba izinga lokuthutha impahla libuyele kwinqanaba lika-2016 ukuya ku-2019.” utshilo uJia Dashan.

Xa kujongwa amazinga aphezulu okuthutha impahla ngoku, abanini bempahla abaninzi bathambekele ekutyikityeni izivumelwano zexesha elide zokuvala amaxabiso okuthutha impahla, kwaye inani lezivumelwano zexesha elide kwimarike liyanda kancinci kancinci.

Amasebe karhulumente nawo asebenza nzima. Kuyaqondakala ukuba uMphathiswa wezoThutho, uMphathiswa wezoRhwebo kunye namanye amasebe afanelekileyo asebenzise imigaqo-nkqubo yokukhuthaza esebenzayo kwiinkalo ezininzi ezinje ngokwandisa imveliso yeekhonteyina, ukukhokela iinkampani zeenqwelo-mafutha ukwandisa amandla, kunye nokuphucula ukusebenza kakuhle kweenkonzo zothutho ukuqinisekisa uzinzo lwekhonkco lokubonelela ngemixokelelwane yemizi-mveliso yamazwe ngamazwe.